Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 04/0952Z from Region 3453 (N07W29). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 478 km/s at 04/0846Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/0449Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/1920Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 30/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 155
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 160/162/162
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 009/012-010/012-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/50

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