Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 07/1909Z from Region 3225. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep, 10 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 06/2329Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 398 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (08 Sep, 10 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 161
Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 155/158/155
90 Day Mean 07 Sep 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 008/010-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/40/25

space weather