Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/2339Z from Region 3421 (N14W14). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 06/1724Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/1225Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 830 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 147
Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 06 Sep 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 014/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 010/012-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep-09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/15
Space Weather
