Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 04/1106Z from Region 3413. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 04/0029Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2326Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/2309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 514 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (05 Sep, 07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 136
Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 138/135/138
90 Day Mean 04 Sep 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 028/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 010/012-008/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep-07 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/30
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/15/30

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