Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 02/0712Z from Region 3413 (N10W89). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 02/1536Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0407Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/0541Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 01/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 344 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (03 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
Class M 25/10/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Sep 131
Predicted 03 Sep-05 Sep 135/130/135
90 Day Mean 02 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Sep 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Sep 025/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 025/035-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Sep-05 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 75/35/30
space weather
