Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0351Z from Region 3413 (N10W74). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (02 Sep) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 01/2024Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 31/2154Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1256Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 25 pfu at 01/0610Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), active to minor storm levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (02 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 25/20/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 99/30/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 136
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/015-025/035-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/70/30
space weather
