Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0242Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 14/0608Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1252 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 154
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-009/012-014/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/25/15
Minor Storm 15/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/30

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