Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 10/0242Z from Region 3398 (S21W85). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 484 km/s at 10/0800Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1559Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20 pfu at 09/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1708 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 156
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 150/150/145
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

Space weather