Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 08/0931Z from Region 3387 (N18W89). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (11 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 07/2216Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 07/2132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2157Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 45 pfu at 08/1720Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 720 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Aug, 10 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (11 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (09 Aug) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (10 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
Class M 55/55/40
Class X 10/10/01
Proton 99/25/01
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Aug 159
Predicted 09 Aug-11 Aug 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 08 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Aug 011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Aug 014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Aug-11 Aug 014/015-008/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Aug-11 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/10
Minor Storm 20/15/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/45/10
space weather
