Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 05/2221Z from Region 3386 (N11W76). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (07 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 06/0737Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 06/0314Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 06/1623Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17 pfu at 06/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (07 Aug, 09 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Aug). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug, 09 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
Class M 55/25/25
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 174
Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 168/166/164
90 Day Mean 06 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 024/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 009/012-014/020-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/30
Minor Storm 05/30/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/50/20
space weather
