Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 03/1155Z from Region 3380 (S11W80). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (04 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 03/1509Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 03/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Aug), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (05 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (04 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
Class M 55/35/35
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Aug 163
Predicted 04 Aug-06 Aug 160/160/162
90 Day Mean 03 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Aug 010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Aug 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Aug-06 Aug 010/015-020/026-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Aug-06 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/45/30
Minor Storm 20/30/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/25
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 35/50/25
space weather
