Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/1452Z from Region 3380 (S10W66). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (03 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 02/0127Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/0501Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 55/50/50
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 10/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 173
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 009/010-013/020-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/45
Minor Storm 05/20/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/50
Space weather
