Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 01/0657Z from Region 3380 (S10W55). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (04 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 31/2128Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2013 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (04 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 55/55/50
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 175
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 175/170/165
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 014/018-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 45/20/10
Space Weather
