Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 30/0814Z from Region 3390 (S19E46). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 30/0939Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0415Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 62 pfu at 29/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 591 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 30/30/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jul 174
Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 170/165/165
90 Day Mean 30 Jul 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 008/010-023/030-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/60/45
space weather
