Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 26/1037Z from Region 3376 (N23W82). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 26/1614Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 25/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 330 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 35/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 167
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 168/165/162
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 017/020-008/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 45/15/10
space weather
