Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 15/0741Z from Region 3363 (S22W47). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 469 km/s at 15/1856Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 15/0944Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (18 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 179
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 180/180/182
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 017/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 008/010-009/012-019/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/30/50

space weather