Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 12/0855Z from Region 3372 (N24E65). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (15 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 12/0044Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 12/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 796 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 55/55/50
Class X 20/20/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 193
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 190/188/188
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/012-012/014-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 15/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/40

Space Weather