Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and ForecastSDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 10/0355Z from Region 3366 (S10W52). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 10/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2358Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 933 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 40/40/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 191
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 192/190/188
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 006/005-010/012-011/014

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20

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