Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 08/0144Z from Region 3361 (N24W12). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 07/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 830 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Jul, 10 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 161
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 160/155/155
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 016/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 011/012-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20

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