Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 02/2314Z from Region 3354 (N16W58). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 03/2016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/0612Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3083 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Jul, 05 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (06 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M 65/65/65
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jul 173
Predicted 04 Jul-06 Jul 175/170/165
90 Day Mean 03 Jul 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul 008/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul 009/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/10

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