Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 01/1256Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 01/0042Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/0110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2570 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (02 Jul, 04 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (03 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul, 04 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 166
Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 01 Jul 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 008/010-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/20

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