Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/1003Z from Region 3354 (N13W30). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 30/1403Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2632 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (03 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Jun 159
Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 30 Jun 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 012/015-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/15
Major-severe storm 30/20/10

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