Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 29/1415Z from Region 3354 (N15W16). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 29/1432Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2434 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 162
Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 29 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 007/008-012/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/30/20

Space Weather