Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 28/0844Z from Region 3340 (N23W72). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 28/0020Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 28/1001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/2119Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3512 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Jun, 30 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jun 155
Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 28 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 006/005-006/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/35
Minor Storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/30

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