Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/1514Z from Region 3340 (N23W58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 27/0142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2111 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 151
Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 155/155/150
90 Day Mean 27 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 007/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10

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