Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/1217Z from Region 3337 (N21W51). There are currently 14 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun, 27 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 24/1925Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 24/2029Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1075 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jun), quiet levels on day two (26 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 161
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 160/160/160
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/008-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/30
Minor Storm 05/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/35

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