Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/1121Z from Region 3341 (S15E34). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 21/2107Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 22/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2547 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (25 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 173
Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 180/180/185
90 Day Mean 22 Jun 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 010/014-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/30/20

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