Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/1711Z from Region 3331 (S22E37). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 09/1327Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 09/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 253 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jun 164
Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 163/157/160
90 Day Mean 09 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 005/005-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/15

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