Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 08/0459Z from Region 3327 (S16E15). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 07/2234Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/2233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/0353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Jun, 11 Jun) and quiet levels on day two (10 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 169
Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 168/163/157
90 Day Mean 08 Jun 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 008/008-005/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/05/10

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