Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/0826Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 731 km/s at 02/0443Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0504Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2207Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1234 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 127
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr NA/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 008/008-007/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 10/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/45/50

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