Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/0057Z from Region 3263 (N17W12). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar, 28 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 25/1824Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 24/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 662 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Mar 160
Predicted 26 Mar-28 Mar 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 25 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar 040/072
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar 015/020-014/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 25/20/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/30
space weather
