Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 19/1809Z from Region 3256 (S22E54). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 19/1016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0446Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 280 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (22 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 143
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 143/140/140
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 011/015-015/018-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/15
Minor Storm 15/15/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 45/50/20

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