Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 14/0605Z from Region 3250 (S18W22). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (15 Mar, 16 Mar) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 445 km/s at 14/0837Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/0431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/0814Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 16 pfu at 14/2035Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 504 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (15 Mar, 16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Mar) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
Class M 05/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 99/25/01
PCAF in progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 139
Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 140/142/150
90 Day Mean 14 Mar 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 020/025-021/025-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar-17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/20
Minor Storm 30/30/05
Major-severe storm 10/15/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/25
space weather
