Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 11/0103Z from Region 3245 (S23W31). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 11/0830Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/1621Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 955 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (14 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 157
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 160/165/170
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 009/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20

space weather