Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/2244Z from Region 3245 (S23E07). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 467 km/s at 09/1718Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0734Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0614Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3480 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 179
Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 178/175/170
90 Day Mean 09 Mar 172

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 008/008-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/30

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