Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/1012Z from Region 3242 (N10W15). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4293 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M 40/35/35
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Mar 182
Predicted 09 Mar-11 Mar 178/175/172
90 Day Mean 08 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar 007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/25

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