Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 24/2030Z from Region 3229 (N25W32). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26 Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 23/2334Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2215Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 437 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Feb, 26 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 164
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 165/165/165
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 166

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 008/008-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/30
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/35

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