Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0614Z from Region 3235 (N19E08). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 23/0654Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 22/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 22/2332Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1008 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (24 Feb, 26 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 Feb, 25 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 148
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 148/146/146
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 011/012-008/010-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/30
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 45/30/40
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