Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 16/0032Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 16/2021Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 16/0840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 16/0819Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Feb), quiet to major storm levels on day two (18 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M 30/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 163
Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 165/160/155
90 Day Mean 16 Feb 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 023/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 014/022-023/030-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/40
Minor Storm 25/40/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 65/70/50

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