Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 11/1548Z from Region 3217 (S09E36). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 10/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/1550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 981 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M 80/75/75
Class X 30/25/25
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 210
Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 210/205/205
90 Day Mean 11 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20

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