Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 10/0303Z from Region 3213 (N30W36). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 10/1949Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2337Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/2337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1002 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 208
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 210/210/205
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 016/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 014/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 008/008-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15

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