Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09/0310Z from Region 3217 (S10E63). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1220 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 215
Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 214/212/212
90 Day Mean 09 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/008-008/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/15

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