Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/1212Z from Region 3211 (S17W57). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 06/2008Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 06/0459Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 158
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 160/158/158
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/016-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/25

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