Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 05/0326Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 05/0833Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1936Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1627Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 144
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 150/160/155
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 008/010-013/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/40

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