Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 28 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1201Z from Region 3200 (N21W15). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 572 km/s at 28/1212Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2320Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/2306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 588 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan, 31 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jan 138
Predicted 29 Jan-31 Jan 135/145/145
90 Day Mean 28 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jan 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jan-31 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10

space weather