Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 17/0013Z from Region 3192 (N19E26). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 16/2110Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0951Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 17/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 469 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Jan, 20 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (19 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
Class M 60/55/50
Class X 15/15/10
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 222
Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 220/220/218
90 Day Mean 17 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 008/010-011/016-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/50/25
Space Weather
