Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 16/0923Z from Region 3182 (S17W75). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 16/0315Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 15/2300Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/2254Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 546 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (19 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 228
Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 226/226/226
90 Day Mean 16 Jan 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 008/008-007/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan-19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/30/50

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