Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 14/2021Z from Region 3182 (S18W48). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 14/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 13/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 252 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 228
Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 225/225/220
90 Day Mean 14 Jan 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan-17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/20

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