Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 09/1850Z from Region 3184 (S14E67). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 09/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Jan, 11 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (12 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 191
Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 192/190/190
90 Day Mean 09 Jan 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan-12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/40/20
space weather
