Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 06/0057Z from Region 3182 (S16E59). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 06/0903Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 06/0841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/1235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 172
Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 170/170/165
90 Day Mean 06 Jan 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 007/008-008/008-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 30/20/40

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